Start Planning in Summer
The businesses that survive holiday season without chaos are the ones that start planning six months early. By October, it is already too late to make major changes. Here is a month-by-month preparation timeline.
June-July: Audit and Forecast
Review last year‘s holiday numbers: total shipments, peak daily volume, box sizes used, damage rates, and any stockouts. Forecast this year’s volume with a 15-20% buffer — it is better to have surplus boxes than to run out on December 15.
Identify your top 5 box sizes by volume. These are the sizes you must guarantee availability for. Everything else can flex.
August-September: Secure Supply
Place your box orders early. During Q4, new box suppliers face 2-4 week lead times and price surges. Used box suppliers like Portland Boxes experience higher demand but maintain shorter lead times because inventory is always turning.
Set up a standing order or delivery schedule for your peak period. Agree on pricing now rather than negotiating during the crunch.
October: Test and Train
Run a stress test: process a simulated peak day using your holiday packing procedures. Time each step. Identify bottlenecks. Where does the line slow down? Is it box assembly? Packing? Labeling? Staging?
Train seasonal staff now, not on their first real shift. Set up additional packing stations with pre-positioned supplies.
November-December: Execute
With preparation done, execution is straightforward:
- Maintain box inventory levels — Check daily, reorder when you hit 3-day supply.
- Monitor quality — Rushing leads to sloppy packing. Damage claims spike during holidays.
- Have a backup supplier — If your primary supplier has a hiccup, you need a Plan B.
- Take care of your team — Peak season is grueling. Small gestures (coffee, lunch, early releases on light days) maintain morale and productivity.
Planning is free. Crisis management is expensive. Start early.